The end of the long award season is nigh. A journey that started back in January of 2023 with Sundance and ending more than a calender year later. It’s been a long ride. I’ll leave the 2023 moratorium for another piece, but as a quick summation – it was a brilliant year for the medium. A year that joined general audiences and cinephiles together and got people excited about dicussing movies again.
Before jumping into predictions, make sure to check out the 2023 Weird Cinema winners, Oscar Points, and the top 200 actors list. Enough of the shameless plugs of plecntia, let’s get to the big one. The Super Bowl of film. The biggest night of film. And every other cliche you can think of…
Above the line
Best Picture: Oppenheimer
Spoiler: Poor Things
My pick: The Zone of Interest
Notes: Oppenheimer has 26 total Best Picutre wins, Past Lives is a distant second with 11 wins, and on top of that, Oppenheimer won the coveted Producers Guild Award (PGA). If all that is not enough, it’s got the most nominations and nearly broke the nomination record. It’s got a great narrative behind Chritopher Nolan and was a huge box-office success. It’s winning and no one is clear what is number two in the category.
Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Spoiler: Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
My pick: Jonathon Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Notes: Christopher Nolan deserves this honor. Even detractors have to acknowledge Nolan’s impact on the inudstry and impressionable young people that could pursue a career in the arts. He won the Directors Guild (DGA), has swept the major inudstry awards, and has the strongest narrative in the category by a landslide. It’s the perfect moment to annoint Christopher Nolan and reward him for a career achievement in Oppenheimer.
Best Actor: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Spoiler: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
My Pick: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Notes: Actor is one of the most difficult categories to call with both Paul Giamatti and Cillian Murphy having split wins at major awards and among critics. However, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and BAFTA surge with Murphy winning both right around voting time is to big to ignore. The SAG push was massive in 2023, and should have a similar impact in 2024. On top of that, the clear Picture winner is a biopic and CIllian Murphy leads the way. Hard to ignore the titular role under those circumstances even if Giamatti deserves a career win for The Holdovers
Best Actress: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Spoiler: Emma Stone, Poor Things
My pick: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Notes: Actress has been the most highly contested and controversial category this season. The discourse is a toxic cesspool of overly emotional teenagers instead of celebrating two dynamite leading performances. With that said, predicting it has been a ton of fun and feels like a true coin-toss. Emma Stone had the clear advantage with BAFTA, Critics, and Globes but Lily’s SAG win threw a haymaker. And, with SAG hitting right during Oscar voting, as we saw in 2023 with Everything Everywhere All at Once, that moves the needle A LOT.
Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Spoiler: America Ferrera, Barbie
My Pick: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Notes: Da’Vine Joy Randolph has 56 total wins. Most by an actress ever in a single season. She would be eighth in Oscar Points by herself. There is a discussion to ne had on Lily Gladstone going lead, but those are hypotheticals. The reality is she is winning an Oscar.
Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
Spoiler: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
My Pick: Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Notes: Much like Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Downey Jr is a sweeper. Critics prefered the unominated Charles Melton or Ryan Gosling, but the industry decided it was time to reward Robert Downey Jr in his post-Marvel sheen. It will be a wonderful achievement and assuming RDJ was saving his best material for the Oscar speech, it should be one of the best speeches of the night, especially if he mentions his late father and legendary independent filmmaker, Robert Downey Sr.
Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Spoiler: The Holdovers
My Pick: May December
Notes: Anatomy of a Fall is a critics darling, won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, dominated at BAFTA, and could realistically be in the top 3 of Best Picture. From end-to-end, Anatomy of a Fall has been hugely succesful and now Justine Triet is a recognizable talent. Even with the domestic popularity of The Holdovers (and no, the Payne’ plagarism accusations won’t factor in here), American Fiction has been a force. Five nominations for an international release including picture, director, screenplay, and editing is absurd. Strongest international release since Parasite. More importantly, it’s considered a screenplay acheievement above all else and WGA won’t have any impact.
Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction
Spoiler: Oppenheimer
My Pick: Oppenheimer
Notes: American Fiction won the TIFF audience award and never looked back. It essentially put Cord Jefferson on the awards radar and pushed Jeffrey Wright into the best actor race. Even against titanic screenplays such as Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, it feels as if Jefferson’s plucky little scathing satire that is likely to win the Oscar. Against all odds, it won the BAFTA – an awards body not particularly known for awarding black artist – USC Scripter, and Critics Choice. Those three combined is one helluva an argument to predict it at the Oscar.
Below the line
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Spoiler: Poor Things
My Pick: Killers of the Flower Moon
Notes: After the British Cinematographers (BSC) went Poor Things, it felt like there was a bit of competition there. However, BAFTA and the American Cinematographers (ASC) quickly returned to sender and gave Hoye van Hoyteman the win. He’s won everywhere save for BSC. Between Jennifer Lame, Ludwig Goransson, and Hoytema – these three have ostensibly swept the season. It’s Oppenheimer’s world and we’re just living in it.
Editing: Oppenheimer
Spoiler: The Holdovers
My Pick: Oppenheimer
Notes: Jennifer Lame is one of the most talented editors in Hollywood and her time was coming like a train. She is the immovable object and her work on Oppenheimer is absolutely stunning. Outside of Laurent Schenel for Anatomy of a Fall, virtually no one has chellanged her throne. Winning the American Editors (ACE) out the final touches on what amounts to a dominant Oscar run. Let more women edit!
Production Design: Poor Things
Spoiler: Barbie
My Pick: Poor Things
Notes: The impossibly cruel task of picking between Barbie Land and a Victorian sex dungeon is one I don’t envy. Sarah Greenwood was quickly established as the frontunner and felt like the runaway winner up until BAFTA and the American Art Directors (ADG) went with Poor Things. In the blink of an eye, a race that felt almost secure for Barbie has slipped towards Poor Things. Up until ADG, Barbie had won 21 of the 22 production design awards. Now, it’s Poor Things to lose with set directors, ADG, and BAFTA
Costume: Barbie
Spoiler: Poor Things
My Pick: Poor Things
Notes: Poor Things vs Barbie is the heavy weight knockout fight in the tech categories we all crave. Much like Production Design, the race in costume is a clear toss-up. THe work from both teams is showy, essential worldbuiliding in these magnificent directorial visions. Costumes play a monumental part of the success of both films. Costume often coincides with production design, but this year I suspect a split. Both films landed at the costume guild (CDG). Poor Things unspurisngly took BAFTA and Barbie took Critics Choice. The question becomes which one should be weighted more? The answer to me is simple, Critics Choice, as it’s got a long streak of picking winners in this category. That’s my logic but I won’t pretend this is a sure-thing.
Makeup: Maestro
Spoiler: Poor Things
My Pick: Poor Things
Notes: After BAFTA, it felt like all the momentum for Maestro had dissapated. It only took a few hours for the legendary Kazu Hiro to get back in the limelight when it won the Makeup and Hair guild (MUAHS). Despite only one other win on the season, Maestro is the most obvious bait for Oscar voters. Big prosthetic noses win Oscars. The guild rewarding Maestro over Poor Things was all that was needed to push me back towards Maestro
Sound: Oppenheimer
Spoiler: The Zone of Interest
My Pick: The Zone of Interest
Notes: If I had to pick one film to win one catgeory, it would be Johnnie Burn for his work on The Zone of Interest. However, that’s not how the world works unfortunately. Richard King and the sound team of Oppenheimer deserve tons of credit and it will be a great win. Zone only has BAFTA, with Richard King nearly winning everywhere else.
Score: Oppenheimer
Spoiler: Poor Things
My Pick: Poor Things
Notes: It’s bizzare how the narrative surroding Emma Stone winning her second oscar is much more vitriol and loud than Ludwig Göransson. Unlike his Black Panther score, this is deserving movie magic work that screams cinematic unlike most original scores. He’s won constantly this season and there’s no reason to believe he will lose here. The Academy body clearly enjoys his music.
Visual Effects: The Creator
Spoiler: Godzilla: Minus One
My Pick: Godzilla: Minus One
Notes: Hardest category to pick of the night by a long shot. The guilds made it impossible to choose by going with a variety of winners. None of them are Best Picture nominees. Napoleon has a coinciding Production Design nomination, but it feels like the year that stat is broken with Napoleon not being a traditionally VFX-heavy experience. The Creator took VES, which is why I’m leaning towards the VFX focused film, but it was an underseen film and not loved by critics. Godzilla: Minus One has the narrative and it undoubtedly the most popular film of the group, but did Academy members watch it? Each film has an argument to be made for and against it. Sticking with the guilds pick, but not confident in this one at all – could switch to Godzilla by Oscar night.
Song: “What Was I Made for,” Barbie
Spoiler: “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
My Pick: “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
Note: Billie Eilish is an industry darling and her winning the Grammy for this song sealed her second win at the Oscar. I want the more joyous and goofy Barbie song to win, but remember, this is the Oscars and prestige and self-seriousness wins out. This one has been decided for months.
International: The Zone of Interest
Spoiler: Society of the Snow
My Pick: “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
Notes: The Zone of Interest isn’t a film that the Academy usually goes nominates. It’s unconventional, slow, grueling, lacking narrative push, and horrifying. With France choosing (the superior film) The Taste of Things over Anatomy of a Fall, there’s no real competition and Jonathon Glazer and the country of England will get an Oscar. If Johnnie Burn can’t win in sound, this will be the best win of the night.
Animated: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Spoiler: The Boy and the Heron
My Pick: The Boy and the Heron
Notes: Animated is a much closer race than many want to admit, but at the end of the day, Spider-Verse will win another Oscar as a super popular american film based on famous IP. The BAFTA win for The Boy and the Heron does give me pause, as it’s been a good predictor of the award in the past, and losing the Globe isn’t nothing – but once Miyazaki announced it’s not his last film, the narrative push dropped off immediatly and there was no real urgency to give him a second Oscar. Why? I don’t know. Voters need to feel as if there vote means something, even if that means passing on rewarding an industry genius once again.
Documentary: 20 Days in Mariupol
Spoiler: Four Daughters
My Pick: Four Daughters
Notes: The documentary branch is the dumbest in the entire Academy. Purposefully snubbing the frontrunner is a hiliarous gag, but then we end up with the most milquetoast boring winners in this category. 20 Days in Mariupol doesn’t fit that description, with the unbelievably bravery of the filmmakers, but it is a topical film that gets the nod due to relevance rather than overwhelming love. It feels like the one documentary that voters will watch.
Short Categories
Animated short: War is Over! John & Yoko
Spoiler: Letter to a Pig
Live Action short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Spoiler: Red White and Blue
Notes: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar is wonderful. I know Wes Anderson fans envisioned a bigger film to get him his Oscar, but moving into shorts feels perfect for his sensibilities as an artist. I will be happy as hell if he wins this award.
Documentary short: The Last Repair Shop
Spoiler: The ABCs of Book Banning
Important reminder before you click off, the Oscars are a single groups opinions on film. It’s not a monolith and it doesn’t invalidate your opinion on a film because it didn’t win or get nominated. Feel free to get upset or even rage but don’t turn that rage into vitriol and attack others. It’s not that deep and makes you the asshole. It’s a time to celebrate these creative people and hopefully spread that joy to the next generation of cinephiles and movie-goers.
Anyways, enjoy the Oscars. Make sure to eat plenty of appetizers, play in the office Oscar pool, and express your love for your favorite films. it’s supposed to be fun, so let’s have fun with it. And make sure to keep track of the Oscar Points throughout the night. Cheers, folks.
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